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Don’t forget that as a Pirate, Nick Gonzales will never reach his potential. His best hope is they foolishly trade him for a broken pitcher. Being freed from Pittsburgh was the best thing to happen to Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz.
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The only other thing I meant was that people get so worked up about the rule 4 draft, and wind up over spending on prospects because of the “buzz” and name recognition following the draft coverage. But objectively, what is Heston Kjerstad better at than Casas? Casas is a full year younger than Kjerstad, and I see little difference in their skills. If anything, Casas swing seems quieter and less prone to strikeouts on high 4 seamers.
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You know I don't think any of them are special. I was the one saying they were not right after the draft. I mentioned that I liked Vaugn better than Torkelson and clearly this year's college pitching is much better than last year. I do love Zac Veen's upside, but most likely have to wait four years until he contributes. I mentioned to you, I wasn't nutz about Kjerstad's swing, too much leg kick. I do like Gonzales, I think he could be a larger, stronger version of Altuve.
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Gavin Lux at age 19 at A ball was unimpressive. A year later at age 20 in AA he is elite. I think Casas’s swing is advanced and powerful. His swing reminds me of Lux and Bellinger. You know I focus more on swing mechanics than stats in the low minors. I am not claiming I know the objective truth - just my prediction that Casas will be a legitimate mid-lineup hitter. I also think he looks athletic and defensively adept for a guy that big.
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Winnetka - what makes Torkelson, Austin Martin, Nick Gonzales, or Kjerstad so special?
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Maybe Casas would have been picked by Boston this year, regardless if everyone else had a 2nd round grade. Look how they drafted this year.
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Yes. Pray tell, what makes Casas so special? He didn’t exactly rip through class A last year.
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Re: Casas... He is younger than Torkelson, better defensively, bats LH (so he will have the platoon advantage more often than Tork), and has already been through 3 levels in the minors. I don’t mean to say he will have a better career, but do you really think any of Torkelson, Martin, Gonzales, or Kjerstad are definitively better than Casas? I think if he had been in the draft, he would have been a top 10 pick, maybe top 5.
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30 players on their active roster for the first two weeks, the following two weeks that number is trimmed to 28 before finally settling on the new standard of 26 players that was set to be instituted this season. The taxi squad will increase to 32 and 34 accordingly.
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Beyond the 30 players that will open the season, another 30 players will form a tax squad which will serve as a pseudo-Minor League system. This taxi squad will not be playing games or function as a AAA team however. Envision it as Spring Training workouts without the games. Players will stay in game shape by practicing and working on skills development.
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Groshans probably, Casas....meh.
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I'm still pretty much lost. Is it no minor league ball at all this year? Does this mean good prospects who would be at AA or AAA will play in the majors just to get playing time? How many players on the actual playing roster? 30? Are the rest of the 60 just working out but not playing any games? Holy shit everything gets weirder every week.
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Does anybody share my view that if Tristan Casas and Jordan Groshans we’re in the 2020 rule 4 draft, they would both have been top 10 picks? If so, they are both available if anybody has 1B or RP to trade.
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Yeah runner on second in extras. The batter who made the final out in the previous inning (or a pinch-runner for that batter) would be that runner. I'm guessing if it is just a pinch runner it won't count as a game played for us because they won't get an at-bat. Also yes NL DH is happening. I believe that is all of the big rule changes.
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Are they really doing the extra innings runner on second thing? Will the extra inning pinch runner count as a game played for us? DH for NL? Any other new changes?
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Also any players deemed "high risk" can opt out and still receive full prorated pay, but it doesn't appear there will be many players opting out.
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Players will undergo COVID-19 testing upon arrival at camp, then begin workouts if they test negative. Players, coaches and support staff will be tested for COVID-19 every other day during training camps, the regular season and postseason. Anybody testing positive will be quarantined. Two negative tests are reportedly required for a return. Players will also receive temperature/symptom checks at least twice per day, and antibody testing will be conducted approximately once per month.
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Yes 60 games. 10 against each division rival and 4 against each team in the opposite league division from the same region. Rosters will be expanded to 30 to start the season, but down to 28 after 2 weeks and 26 after 4 weeks. 10 Day IL will be back in stead of 15, and there will be a separate IL for players who either test positive or have symptoms/confirmed exposure to COVID-19. There is no maximum or minimum days for that IL.
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So what's happening with mlb? Is the 60 games for real? Are they expanding rosters? I think if they expand rosters its going to mean our lineups will be harder to plan. When players get corona, will they go on 10 day? Are any players optung out to stay safe at home with family?
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Baseball and politics are impossible to separate these days. Fangraphs itself is now a one-sided political blog.
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OK all. Can we please move the politically and emotionally charged discussions to our family gatherings at Thanksgiving? Let's keep Ottoneu as a friendly, happy escape from the rest of the crazy world we have to live in.
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Yeah. I didn't think either of you guys worked in a hospital.
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Also, from a selfish POV... I need COVID to keep things shut down. I have been “teleworking” for 4 (i.e. at home drinking martinis all day while getting paid, and even accruing vacation time), and there has been zero traffic on the days when I need to drive. For me, COVID has made life so much easier. So I am probably tainted by my desperation to keep my “telework” schedule going. It will be awful trying to readjust to waking up early, rush hour traffic, and actual work.
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Need coffee!
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Sorry... Edit... I wish I was a glass half FULL person.
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I wish I was a glass half empty person. I always tend to be a pessimist. I’ll say this though - I hope you are right.
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You know my position on the overblown COVID fraud... I agree there is no actual, legitimate reason the virus should cause a problem. If I were in charge, fans would be allowed in ballparks, and baseball would be already in mid-season. But so many people are so committed to COVID being an existential threat, I remain convinced it will prevent live sports in America.
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I’m a glass half full person, I realize that there is a very good chance this all falls apart, but I remain cautiously optimistic.
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I believe all your questions have been worked out. Players live at home/hotel, play at home stadium, handle +Covid tests like the rest of the country. no DH had been agreed upon by the owners and that is something the players have wanted. Some players may opt out for medical reasons and will get paid (diabetes). What second wave? Fauci has been much more wrong than right. He is a deep state fraud.
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How will logistics like this be handled on such short notice? Will we still have normal 2-league, 6-division format, no DH in the NL? Will some players opt out? How will they handle a “second wave”? They have a LOT of work to do if they want to make 60 games happen?
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Within 48 hours we will hear the following: MLBPA will file grievances (they spent months vilifying owners in prep for this). Where will players live? A “bubble”? Where will games be played? How will support staff be accommodated? How will they handle + COVID tests (14 day IL)? Will Canada allow travel?
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The owners could have stuck the players with a 50 game season, instead players will get 20% more salary. There are delays anyways because of recent outbreaks in some of the home cities which would make 80 games nearly impossible. The owners met the players in the middle with no expanded playoffs when they didn't have to.
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What would the players gain by not playing? One would think that most of the players would want to play. They would lose the PR battle if they fought this in the courts which would effectively cancel the season base on how long that would take. I would recommend playing, not say much, and look like the reasonable side and negotiate tough for the 2022 season.
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Manfred announced MLB will be playing a 60 game season. Who wants to bet on that actually happening?
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Very good points.
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Very good points.
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Persuasion Theory... If you want to sell the public on something, I still a powerful emotion in them, and their own minds will sort through facts to support the emotion-based position they have taken. They don’t even realize it. They firmly believe they are using logic. Logical debate will never trump advanced Persuasion techniques.
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Winnetka - Don’t forget it is easier for the sake of creating a binary “good versus evil” narrative to just label the owners as evil and the players as good. Nuance makes it harder to have a narrative that masses of people will follow. Once MLB owners have been labeled “evil billionaires” in the collective minds of fandom, you will never be able to un-label them. “Evil billionaire” resonates on an emotional level - logical argument will never win over emotion.
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Right now the 10 year treasury rate is sitting at about .70%. Publications like Forbes will value sports franchises to less than a half if interest rates rise to let's say 2-3%.
Then, many of these owners will not be billionaires anymore.
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interest rate which is at record lows. Two events are very possible after the dust settles from our economic crisis. Higher prices because of much lower productivity which leads to higher interest rates and lower revenues because people will have less money to spend on entertainment. That is a massive double whammy when it comes to valuing businesses. Valuations (like the stock market) are extraordinarily high right now because of the extremely low denominator (interest rates).
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Philly, some of these owners may be billionaires because that is what there businesses were worth given a projected future cash flow of X. But now, some of these owners business' are now worth Earnings Multiple x (X-Y) less debt. It is quite possible that some of these owners could be worth less than zero when all of this is all over.
A lot of publications like to "value" sports franchises. How do you think they do this? By valuing future earnings relative to the prevalent risk-
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Philly how are the billion dollar owners hilarious?
Mookie I don't think you understand the issue between the owners and the players at all. The players are paid on a per game basis. 60 games or $1.5 billion ($25 million per game) is all that some of the owners can afford. The owners do not make any more revenue by having more games, but they will be obligated to pay the players more if there are more games.
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Plus... I hope fans don’t get torn apart bickering over whether to blame players or owners.... Why would it possibly matter whom I blame? I have no control over any of this. But wouldn’t it be nice if, as fans, we had a seat at the collective bargaining table?
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I love baseball. But this year I am focusing on my kids. My daughter is on varsity softball in 8th grade (And a 14U travel player) and has a real shot at D1 softball in a few years. My son is a 10U catcher - really good player with a swing that most high school kids would kill for. For me, baseball in 2020 will be youth travel ball. MLB does not own the sport of baseball. They are only 1 option. If they choose not to play, I will still watch over 100 games this year - just not MLB.
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Personally I watch to keep up with the billionaire owners. They are hilarious.
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Spa, I understand your frustration... but why would you want that? If you hate baseball this much why are you in this league? How dare the players get paid what they're worth and be compensated fairly for potentially being exposed to COVID, and how dare they want more baseball than less baseball. I understand both sides have some issues, but I can't understand why a fan would be rooting for less baseball and not back the players that are literally the reason we watch the sport.
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Still no agreement with MLBPA. They were offered full, prorated salaries - but they want to force more games. If they are really worried about COVID (“risking their lives” indeed)... they would want fewer games or no games at all. They want full, prorated salaries AND more games. I hope the owners call the whole season off and blame COVID. And I hope the MLBPA is in such turmoil that the players dissolve the union completely.
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I suspect the players face bigger health risks in their normal lives than they do playing baseball in empty stadiums with constant, world-class medical support. It is such fake, hand-wringing drama for them to claim they are risking their health, careers, and families by playing baseball in empty stadiums and living in isolated hotels with full-time medical support. Play ball. If they don’t, they will probably regret their refusal in the near future.
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There is virtually zero risk for healthy people under the age of 40. Their mortality rate is 0.2%.
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I wouldn't say players risking their health and possibly their careers as well as their families' health is zero risk.
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