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#6 Organization's trade block has been updated!
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Kings of Crash's trade block has been updated!
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C'mon guys, you're not holding up your end of the bargain. It does me no good to dominate a subpar league. I need you to be elite!
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http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ottoneu-power-rankings-may-2017/
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#6 Organization's trade block has been updated!
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Walker, Wheeler, Kluber's trade block has been updated!
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Kings of Crash's trade block has been updated!
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Good lord, that was the most painful save ever. Thanks Nats! I don't really even care at this point, please trade for a real closer so we can end this charade.
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Walker, Wheeler, Kluber's trade block has been updated!
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Mr. Protractor 's trade block has been updated!
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I think my favorite thing about the Harper-Strickland brawl was Mike Morse getting hit like a linebacker by someone in a warm up jacket. Anyone know who that was? Not good tackling form but a solid hit. Morse is a pretty big dude and he went right down.
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That's a good link Chris, thanks for posting it. I could rant and rave, but will go short and sweet instead by noting that the person who wrote the title messed it up. It should read "LeBron James Destroyed Our Elo Ratings Again, But Can He Beat The Warriors?" Nate should have learned a thing or two about updating probabilities and robust estimators from he 2016 election debacle, but apparently he needs to get kicked in the head at least one more time.
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Nate Silver posted a nice article about how the Cavs are tough to pin down with the ELO rating system. A good reminder that the certainty with which these systems work is largely in the mind of the reader and those who make them are pretty straight forward about their limitations and uncertainty in small sample sizes (aka the postseason)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-james-destroyed-our-elo-ratings-but-can-he-beat-the-warriors-again/
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Walker, Wheeler, Kluber's trade block has been updated!
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If past patterns are to be any guide, how much are we going to over inflate Luis Robert? I understand he got signed by the wrong color Sox but I'm thinking, what, $15? That sound about right? For a player that doesn't sniff the majors till the 2020s? Deal.
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Mr. Protractor 's trade block has been updated!
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Isaiah Thomas and John Wall ahead of Kyrie for All-NBA is hilarious. I can live with Green over Love but am curious to know how Boston fans feel, seeing as Love is the cog around which the rest of the Cavaliers revolve (or so I'm told). Also, what bitter shrew of a writer decided to not vote LeBron to the 1st team (and Westbrook for that matter)?
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That scrappy one seed from Beantown managed to almost not get blown out by double digits on their home court. CARMELO projections still thought it was a toss up going in and is going to assign something like 9-1 odds when the inevitable Cavs-Dubs finals begins. Anyone want to make books on that? ...didn't think so.
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Prestige Worldwide's trade block has been updated!
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Walker, Wheeler, Kluber's trade block has been updated!
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Walker, Wheeler, Kluber's trade block has been updated!
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Kings of Crash's trade block has been updated!
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Kings of Crash's trade block has been updated!
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Kings of Crash's trade block has been updated!
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Mr. Protractor 's trade block has been updated!
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Kings of Crash's trade block has been updated!
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And back to the bit about what advanced stats do: thanks for clarifying Jimmy, b/c we were totally talking about two different things. It's important to recognize the dichotomy of statistics that describe vs infer. But, not all analyses can be cross sectional. And it may go a long way in discussions with people like Lou to admit that, maybe with language that tries to strike such a tone?
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And Scott! Even though he managed to annoy me off the jump with his preaching the gospel of Chad Young, we're better with him here. And the old hands all seeing their teams that they've spent years on jockeying for position to challenge me (gee I hope the Internet translates hubris as tongue in cheek). So please keep it up, all of you, as you are. And now, as you were.
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Just going to chime in here, before getting back to my super enlightening and very interesting comments on the utility of numbers and measurement, that this league is 100x better this year with all of the new blood that has been infused. This includes Lou AND Jimmy (and Chris, who I guess is also part of Team Advanced Stats). And Howie, despite persisting in the error of actually trying to challenge me atop the standings.
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Kings of Crash's trade block has been updated!
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#6 Organization's trade block has been updated!
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Lou, I love the shit out of you man!
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If you don't like me then private message me and tell me. But I will be honest with you, I won't read your message. I'll just delete it
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I don't think cursing should be allowed on the message board. If you can't hold a conversation without cursing then maybe you shouldn't post a message. Also, if you don't like me
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Why do you always get so angry. You need to relax and take your mind off the stats for a minute & enjoy the games for what they are. BTW turnovers affect the outcome of games and when your main ball handler turns the ball over that much he's costing the team games. I play fantasy baseball because I like to watch the game and it makes it more interesting. Go Celtics
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Also, this is a league born out of advanced baseball statistic love, so that is why I am wasting my time with it. It's on fucking fangraphs! https://aroundthehorns.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/sanders-thumbs.gif
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So again, I'm not using them to predict the future, that would be impossible. I'm just saying that playoff prediction odd things are silly because that is what they are trying to do. If we're taking this back to the dumb MVP conversation, in that, stats were used to make a case to why Westbrook was a great choice for MVP and how you can't put too much faith in turnovers. Not trying to predict the future, just a fan of a way to analyze what has happened.
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I can't figure out why all you advanced stat guys are wasting your time with this league. You guys have it all figured out, why not just go to a casino and put your money where your stats are. I'm sure you all knew that the falcons were going to blow a 25 point lead in the Super Bowl too. After all in 80 years no team has ever comeback from that kind of deficit that late in a game. The stats said, it was impossible but guess what, the stats were wrong. That's why I go by what I see.
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The problem is the formulas and guess work used. You can run it 100K but you are still trying to predict the future which is impossible. All I want to do is find super specific ways to judge player performance consistently.
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Chris, that's 100% my point here. Folks like me and other Chris, that are fans of advanced stats and use them in discussion are using stats that are acclimated through past performance. They are real, they have a basis in a player's performance, there isn't any guess work needed.
The Playoff Odd Predictors are just churning through those stats to try and find some truth. They aren't very good at it, so that doesn't justify someone saying that the stats they used are the problem.
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They ran the damn model 50k times; publish some robust standard errors! But really, if your model is estimating a 3% chance at a title for this Cavaliers team you have bigger problems on your hands. Like it or not, that's the bright line here Jimmy. Use fancy stats ~ Cavs with 3% shot; use eyes/bookmakers ~ 25% shot. That's... not good.
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Slight goalpost shifting aside, then dare I say maybe one of the most public faces of sports analytics should come up with a better way to show off advanced statistics' utility to its readership? Those odds are right up there on the 538 home page. That doesn't jibe with your trust or buying it argument.
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Yeah, my point is that the majority of people who follow advanced stats don't buy playoff odds predictions because it kind of bastarizes everything.
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So... a highly regarded group of people perhaps best known as users of advanced statistics are using same to inform a model that is currently telling everyone that the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers have a 3% shot at winning the title. Vegas odds makers are saying it's more like 25% (which is why I should be in Vegas right now with money in hand). You can see the problem there yes? This happened to 538 last year too. Egg, meet face.
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I don't think there is a large group of people who use advanced statistics and also trust in playoff projection odds.
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For more chuckles, check the updated forecast for today; it still has the Wizards as a more likely bet for the finals than the Cavaliers. This is why a guy like Lou is completely justified in saying he doesn't put much stock in "stats" arguments. And while that's throwing the baby out with the bathwater, it's justifiable until those inclined to use the numbers use them better.
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I take your point Paul and grant it; perhaps I'm projecting my frustrations onto you! But this, while maybe not predicting an Eastern Conference flag for the Cs, is what I'm talking about (make sure to select before playoffs in the forecast from drop down):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/
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Somewhere along the way I think the message I'm putting out there is getting lost. Do I want the Celtics to win the east and then the NBA Championship? Of course I do. However, there's nobody with a realistic view of the current NBA who thought they would win the east...I don't know of anybody who predicted them to do so anyway. They're an up and coming team who have a great core, but they're not strong enough to beat Cleveland in a 7 game series. This is my opinion and hopefully I'm wrong! LOL!
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You guys, Tebow is back over the Mendoza Line. The dream is alive. Milb.com doing the lord's work: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/new-york-mets-farmhand-tim-tebow-collects-three-hits-for-columbia-fireflies/c-225715436/t-185364810
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So, if I'm doing the math right, 3 seed = getting destroyed by the Cavaliers in the 2nd round and you were totally okay with that. Therefore, getting bounced by the Bulls in the 1st should be seen as an underachievement no? 53 wins is not an accident. We're not talking '07 Mavs-Dubs here but this is still not at all expected. Maybe caught a break (ha) with Rondo's hand though.
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