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Weekly Update: Last week Bruce, Stephan and Larry were all above 700 points. Bruce and Larry are over 3000 for the last 30d. The top hitting teams are Stephen, Stephan and Larry (Stephan passed Larry last week). The top pitching teams are Larry, Tyler and Jared (no change). The top 6 teams are Larry, Bruce, Tyler, Stephen, Brandon and Paul (Paul knocked Joe out of 6th). The top 6 projected teams are Larry, Tyler, Stephen, Jared, Luke and Brandon (no change).
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200 for Stephan!
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Aaron Nola is on waivers!
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OPL Update: Larry moved up to 11th from 12th last week and has a 5.4/d margin over 32nd (the cut line on 13 JUL). Tyler moved up to 81st from 84th and needs to gain 9.5/d to get to 32nd. With 32d left, Larry looks strong and Tyler is in trouble.
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Two teams scored 700+ last week, Bruce with 957 and Larry with 799. Three teams scored 3000+ over the last 30d, Bruce with 3559, Larry with 3281 and Tyler with 3169. The top 6 teams remain unchanged (Larry, Bruce, Tyler, Stephen, Brandon, Joe). The top hitters are Stephen, Larry and Stephan. The top pitchers are Larry, Tyler and Jared. The top 6 projected teams are Larry, Tyler, Stephen, Jared, Luke and Brandon.
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OPL update: The next cut is at the all-star break and you must be in the top 32 to make the cut. Following that the format is 2 week head to head knockouts. Larry is 12th today and Tyler is 84th.
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Brief update today as this is BIO week. Two teams were +700 last week, Tyler & Bruce. The top hitters are Stephen, Larry and Stephan. The top pitchers are Larry, Tyler and Jared. The top 6 are unchanged and I am sorry but don't have time to update the projections this week.
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Tyler makes the cut at 95th. Stephen just missed at 111th and is out. But… he finished in the top half of the top teams in ON! Well done Stephen. Larry leads going into Round 3.
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2100ct. Tyler is 95th with a margin of 25.
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At 1900 ct, Tyler is +43, Stephen is -200.
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At 1700 CT, Tyler is down to 91st (39 point margin) and Stephen is 127th (210 point margin). We consider Stephen to be out, and Tyler is hanging on for dear life. My battery is dying so I will not provide another update until I get to my hotel.....althought truth be told, I am likely the only one who really cares about this. Congrats to Stephen for making it this far in the OPL!
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On the final day of this OPL round with the first round of afternoon games final, Larry remains in 1st by 100+ points. Tyler is 88th with a 63 pt margin. Stephen is 126th and down 200 points.
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OPL update with 1d left: Larry remains in 1st place. Tyler dropped from 82nd to 89th (with his only SP). His margin went up to 55/d from 48/d....but with no SP on the final day, it is going to be very close for Tyler to make the cut. Stephen dropped from 119th to 125th, and his need went from 79/d to 155/d. Apart from an amazing final day (he might have multiple SP?), Stephen is likely out.
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OPL update with 2 days until the cut: Larry is a lock and repping our league well in 1st place overall. Tyler had a decent day and moved up to 82nd from 84th. More importantly, his margin went from +31/d to 48/d. His situation is looking better today but he is not clearly in. Stephen moved up to 119th, but he went from -53/d to -79/d. He really needs a strong day.
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Jared has 36 at 2B, and 32 at MI. The top hitting teams are Larry, Stephen and Stephan. The top pitching teams are Larry, Jared and Tyler. The top 6 are Larry, Bruce, Tyler, Stephen, Brandon and Joe. The top 6 projected are Larry, Tyler (-7.6%), Jared (-9.7%), Stephen (-9.9%), Luke ( -10.8%), and Brandon (-14.9%). Larry has a pretty impressive lead!
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Sorry to be late with the update today, but my grandson was here so he trumps the game update. Today we have completed 1/3 of the season. To catch up, over the last 2/3 you need to beat teams by 50% of margin they have accumulated to date. If you are behind 10%, you need to average 5% lead per day over the rest of the seaon to beat them. There are 126 days left in the seaon (this includes the all star break). So if you have not played 36 games at a position, it is no longer possible to get 162.
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+200 for Bruce yesterday!
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OPL update with 3 days left: Larry is in 1st and is a lock. Tyler dropped to 84th, and his margin has dropped from 32/d to 31/d. With only one SP left, he is in serious trouble. Stephen dropped to 120th, and his need increased from 30/d to 53/d, so he is approaching elimination.
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OPL update with 4 days to go before the cut: Larry is a lock in 2nd. Tyler remained in 68th, but his margin improved from +25/d to +32/d. Unfortunately he only has 1 SP the next fourd days, so it will be tense for him to hang on. Stephen dropped from 110th to 117th, and his margin went from -12/d to -30/d so he has work to do. Fortunately, he has at least 1 SP each of the four days remaining, but it will be tough for him.
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OPL update with 5 days left: Larry is a lock and in 2nd. Tyler had a good day yesterday moving up to 68th, and increasing his margin over the cut line to 25/d from 10/d. Stephen also moved up to 110th, and cut his points needed from 15/d to 12/d. It's going to be tight!
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OPL update with 6 days left: Larry moves up to 1st! The 100th place team has averaged 134/d and Larry is 142/d above the cut line, so he is clearly a lock! Tyler dropped to 82nd, and his margin dropped from 14/d to 10/d, he is definitely on the wrong slope! Stephen moved up to 115th, but his need increased from 14/d to 15/d. He is making progress but also running out of time.
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OPL update with 7 days left: Larry is now 2nd, and up 113/d. Tyler dropped to 76th and dropped to 14.6/d. Stephen dropped to 121st and needs 13.9/d. Neither Tyler nor Stephen are heading in the right direction at this point.
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OPL update with 8g before the next cut at 100th. Larry is 4th and has an 85/d margin. As previously stated, he is a lock. Tyler dropped to 70th overnight, and his margin went from 18/d to 17/d. He is trending in the wrong direction. Stephen dropped to 119th, and his need went from 8/d to 10/d. He also went in the wrong direction overnight. Both Tyler and Stephen need to be careful.
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OPL update: Larry is 4th and +77/d, Tyler is 60th and up to +18/d, Stephen is 115th and dropped to -8/d. Larry is a lock. Tyler & Stephen are still in play to make the cut.
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OPL update: Larry is 4th and 67/d above the cut line. He is essentially a lock. Tyler has dropped to 65th but remains 13/d above the cut line. Stephen moved up to 108th with his excellent week and is now 4/d below the cut line. Our league has a chance to get all three into the next round.
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The top 6 teams are Larry, followed by Bruce, Stephen, Tyler, Joe and Brandon. The top 6 projected teams are Larry, Stephen, Jared, Tyler, Luke and Joe.
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4 teams had 700+ last week led by Stephen, then Bruce, Joe and Larry. Stephen took the lead as the top hitting team, followed by Stephan and Larry. Jared took the lead as the top pitching team, followed by Larry and Tyler.
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200+ for Stephen who moves into 3rd.
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OPL update 5/20: Larry is 2nd and extended his margin above the cut line from 50/d to 54/d. Tyler is 59th and dropped from 17/d to 13/d. Stephen is 122nd and dropped from needing 7/d to 10/d to get above the cut line. There are 12d left before the next cut and the cut line is averaging 135/d.
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Jared got 200 yesterday!
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Quick OPL note, with 13d left in round 2, Larry is 50.5 pts/d over the cut line. Tyler is 17.3 over. Stephen is 7.5 under. Come on Stephen!
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200 for Bruce!
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In the OPL, Larry is 2nd with 3587. Tyler is 31st with 3255. The cut line is currently 3004 (100th). Stephen is 144th with 2817. The OPL month is 50% complete so Stephen needs to get moving to make the end of May cut.
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The top 6 teams are Larry, followed by Bruce, Tyler, Stephen, Paul and Brandon. The top 6 projected teams are Larry, followed by Tyler, Stephen, Jared, Luke, and Brandon.
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Happy Monday Owners! Last week 4 teams scored over 700 (that is 100/d). Larry, as usual, led the way with 833, followed by Stephen with 734, Tyler with 706, and Brandon with 701. The top hitting teams are Stephan, then Stephen, then Larry. The top pitching teams are Larry, then Jared, then Tyler. We have played 25% of the season and with 140d left until the end of the season you need to have played 22g to have a chance to get to 162. Luke is dangerously close with 23 at SS.
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On the OPL front, Larry had a big week and temporarily had the OPL lead. He ends the week 3rd, Tyler is 28th and Stephen is 149th. The cut line is 100 for this round, which ends at the end of May. For this round, Larry has scored 1240, Tyler 1092 and Stephen 815. The 100th place team scored 945. Since there are 3.5 weeks left in this round, no need to panic, but Stephen needs a good week or two to get back above the cut line.
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We have completed 21% of the season. 35 games is on pace for hitters and if you have not played 15 it will be impossible to get to 162. Luke's SS position and Jared's MI position are close to this line so they need to keep an eye on those spots. The top 6 teams are Larry, Bruce (down 13.7%), Tyler (16.0), Stephen (20.3), JD (21.3) and Anna (25). The top 6 projected teams are Larry, Tyler (7.2), Jared (7.9), Stephen (10.9), Stephan (13.7) and JD (14.1).
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Larry had a big week leading the league with 819. Jard was 2nd with 731, and Tyler was 3rd with 719. They were the only teams who averaged over 100/g (and Tyler barely did). The best hitting teams are Stephan, then Larry, then JD. The best pitching teams are Jared, then Larry, they Tyler. When you are 2nd/12 in both hitting and pitching, you will be pretty tough...and that is why Larry is crushing it!
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Larry is the leader in OPL! To think we knew him when he was a runner up in our league!
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Our leagues 3 OPL players all made the May 1 cut (had to be above 171 of the 240 entrants). Larry is in 6th, Tyler is 38th and Stephen is 67th. The cumulative scores for April were multiplied by 0.25 to reset the competition for the June 1 cut. To survive the June 1 cut, teams must be in the top 100. At this point, all of our players are above that threshold. If you want to play next year, you must finish in the top 6 in our league.
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Our projection leader is Larry with 18756 projected points. Tyler is 2nd trailing by 5.4%. Stephan is 3rd (6.2), JD is 4th (8.4), Jared is 5th (8.8) and Brandon is 6th (9.4). With 22 weeks left, Brandon would need to outscore Larry by 0.4%/week to win.....so everything is very much in play.
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Another week is in the books, and we have now played 18% of the season. Last week Brandon was the high scorer with Larry 2nd and Anna 3rd. Lary continues to lead for the season with Bruce in 2nd and Tyler 3rd. The best hitting team is Stephan with Stephen 2nd and JD 3rd. The best pitching team is Tyler with Larry 2nd and Jared 3rd. 29 games is on pace for 162 at this point, and with 22 weeks left in the season, if you have not played 7 games at a position, you will likely not get to 162.
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Thank you. Now I have to look into it ...
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Here are the links. The only one I have used is Kauffman:https://www.patreon.com/KaufmanOttoneuTools
Which is good to evaluate player pricing for example. There is also Vibbot: https://www.patreon.com/vibbot
and OttoAssistant: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=51990840. Niv lets these guys scrape the site and use the data.
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Now that is interesting. I run Monte Carlo simulations using Oracle Crystal Ball software (because it is part of my business), so I am pretty certain my team of duffers will collapse on me. Like any bookie knows, more data reduces the variance, but does not eliminate it. The random effects of injuries, which seem to be running at a higher rate than last year, are killing me.
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There are two or three guys with Patreons that charge a few bucks a month and crunch all types of Ottoneu data and make it available. I will post the links later today.
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And remember, my father and grandfather were legal on-track bookies in Australia, so I grew up with starting price odds determination, datasets before databases, and building out value models at the track!
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And you know, If there are data not being used that affects value, I will go down that rabbit hole!
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Bruce, Larry can introduce you to the rabbit hole of the ON forums if you want to get involved in those conversations.
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I am pretty sure all this data is available as Ottoneu data comes from Fangraphs, who I am sure tracks defensive metrics as well. The Fangraphs point system has not changed much, if at all, from the introduction of Ottoneu. While Ottoneu has added some other options like 4x4, 5x5 (points and head to head), pick 6 and OPL, it don't think it is looking to alter its basic structure. Indeed, Niv has repeatedly shot down small suggested changes like adding CI position you find in some roto leagues.
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