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Ngb, you two remind me of Statler and Waldorf
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For future reference... Pat is the one who knows what he's talking about. If the post makes sense, it was Pat, not me. Twins being boring definitely made sense.
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I had a hard time figuring which one of the team names was drew and henry my first year, but was abundantly aware of who charles was
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Kloobs, That very first trade I ever did with you (Neil Walker + Corey Dickerson to you for Sano and maybe a relief pitcher??), I thought you were Kevin!!
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I too have previously confused NGB and Pat for the same guy.
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Framil reminds me of Kevin Mitchell or maybe Joe Carter.
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Harper to Astros is compelling
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Sorry, meant .251/.320/.458 in steamer.
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Brew, hard to imagine a team with that many games against the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox has that much downside, and Cleveland isn't acting too worried about their upside--and have they done anything to actually get better? Seems like the Twins are a very average and boring team. Good luck trying to drum up interest in them. Though if they come out of nowhere and sign Harper....
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Yes, both steamer and zips say 554 PAs. Steamer thinks he'll go .251/.320/.428 with 26 HRs, 1.6 war; zips says .258/.330/.474 with 28 HRs, 2.4 war. Steamer really doesn't like his glove.
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I believe Twins (since you cant answer) have the greatest amount of variance between outcomes , could be this years As/Braves or could be garbage
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Bat, Just noticed that Pecota projects Franmil to get 40% of the 2019 playing time in RF (268 PA), plus an additional 72 pinch-hitting PAs. That's a couple hundred PAs short of Steamer's projection. ZiPS must project playing time comparable to Steamer to have him at 2.5 WAR.
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Also, just generally, since I get to only a handful of games each season, and don't really watch much baseball on TV outside of highlights, really, the primary basis I have for even formulating an opinion is what I read, Pecota included. Clearly in this case I didn't give Pecota much weight since my opinions are pretty much opposite of what Pecota predicts for the Cubs and Brewers.
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and what about the Twins?
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As for pissing and my own opinions, did I not clearly state that my opinions were (1) I didn't think the Cubs post-season window has closed yet, and (2) I think the Brewers will under-perform expectations in 2019?
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ZiPS actually has the Cubs with the 2nd best bullpen in their Division. You know what they say about opinions, everyone has one.
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I believe the Orioles will struggle to win 50 game, and will be 50 -112. With both TB, and TOR improving
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Brew, In case you missed it, today's Fansided Daily ran a piece with this title: "PECOTA is right: The Chicago Cubs will finish under .500". That author is pinning it on (1) the rest of the Division (and NL) getting better while the Cubs did not, and (2) his assessment that the Cubs bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen.
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Piss on Pecota. Think for yourself
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Brew, You're such an awesome Cubs fan, you've raised my awareness. To be fair, the only 2018 post-season team that Pecota predicted to fall all the way into last place in 2019 was the Cubs. Don't you think that's noteworthy? Everything else flowed from that projection which stood out like a sore thumb even in a casual perusal of Pecota. If it makes you feel any better, I personally feel like the Pecota projection that the Braves are now worse than the Mets is equally embarassing.
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Ngb, why all the obsession and scrutiny over the Cubs ? Why dont you pick apart the Twins for us ?
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That was a short wait. Zips is on board with Franmil over Heyward. So much for Zips being stubborn.
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That sounds right and matches what the humans who assign playing time for the depth chart projections think. And to be clear, I wouldn’t trade Franmil for a Cubs SP and won’t be surprised at all if he outperforms Heyward this year, I’m just not surprised Steamer doesn’t put quite as much weight on 2 months of him hitting the cover off the ball that I do. It’ll be interesting to see what zips thinks.
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I think the issue with finding Franmil’s ABs is that someone has to man CF, and I don’t think that’s a job for him, Myers, or Renfroe, so one of Franchy/Margot/Janikowski will play while one of the corner guys sit. But I’d bet on Franmil to eventually force Renfroe to the bench most days.
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So RR doesn’t think Franmil is good enough to earn a roster spot and playing time over the likes of Franchy, Jankowski, and Renfroe...and you’re still surprised Steamer thinks Hayward might be better than he is?
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These drafts are too far apart, who chose 3/17? Its black hole for sports until march madness.
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Those must be 545 AAA plate appearances. Roster Resource doesn't even have Franmil making the mlb opening day roster.
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Also, steamer projects Heyward for 484 PAs in 2019, and Franmil for 545.
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Sorry Brew--I should have been more sensitive. NGB, re steamer vs zips, but my guess is that zips is just more stubborn. Or more conservative in the face of what it thinks might be outlier years (positive or negative). So Schwarber was worth 3.2 war last year? He's might have to do it a few times to prove to zips it's real. Same thing with Quintana. Zips acts like last year almost didn't happen, while steamer (and everyone with biological eyes) is a little pessimistic. Just guessing though.
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Wonder why Steamer (3.0 WAR) and ZiPS (1.9 WAR) have such different views of 2019 Schwarber?
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Sorry Bat, Hadn't refreshed my browser, so didn't see your post before I also noted that Brew's guys were traded, not free agents. As much as ZiPS has the Cubs OF as easily worst in the Division, it also has Cubs starters as easily the best in the Division. Steamer Schwarber vs. Steamer Myers seems fair, but Steamer Franmil must surely be heavily effected by lack of projected playing time?? I haven't checked if that's true... but I don't think roster sites have Franmil starting for Padres.
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Brew, All those guys were traded to the Padres, not signed as top free agents. Rollie Fingers worked out pretty well as a top free-agent sign of the Padres.
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Pat, never reference 1984 season please.
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Ian Happ gets just one more year to prove to me he is even average MLB player
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Sheffield, Csaminiti, and Nevin were all traded to the Padres, not FAs. I thought a Cubs fan might argue that Garvey was a success. No Zips for the Padres yet, but steamer likes Schwarber better than Myers and Hayward better than Franmil. And aren’t the Cubs starters the other reason pecota dislikes their chances?
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Gary sheffield
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Ken Caminiti
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Ngb, your answer is Phil Nevin
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Padres need a veteran starter, I suggest the Cubs move one of theirs for any (or two) of the Padres six mlb outfielders. Franmil is no Eloy and Myers is no Harper, but they'd seem like it compared to what the Cubs have.
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It was by far the worst OF in the NL Central.
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On another topic, if you look at the ZiPS projections for all the teams in the NL Central (which are all available now) and add-up all the WAR projections for starting rotations, bullpens, and starting lineups, the Cubs come out on top, just slightly ahead of Brewers and Cardinals. Until looking at the Cubs ZiPS, I didn't fully realize what a wasteland their outfield is. No one projected to reach even 2.0 WAR... man, could they have ever used Harper.
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Just curious BoY, what was Mannie’s home-road split while he was a Dodger? Admittedly smaller sample.
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Rollie Fingers? But between the beach, the weather, the margaritas, the desert...I don’t know how anybody gets anything done there. I know how hard I worked in Honolulu....
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Going all the way back to Steve Garvey, I just can't remember the Padres signing a big free-agent contract that actually panned-out. Bat, who am I forgetting?
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No, I think we read it first, indirectly anyway, when Kloobs announced Manny was on the market. Manny's career home/road splits are similar to the Colorado Rockies' hitters' splits. Have to believe the Padres' analytics guys were all over that and gave the OK. Very curious to see what happens... I have this nagging suspicion that the Padres have yet again burdened themselves with an awful contract.
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Bregman will have more total points than Machado, you read it first here folks.
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It woukd be funny to see a mas scramble for 9th, and a mad scramble not to finish 12th
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Ngb could send some Arvada
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It does say local. I'm not sure the next state counts. I suppose it is up to the sender though.
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If i finished 9th ,id like Henry to be 12th.Get him to drive to Vermont for some Alchemist or Hill Farmstead.
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