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We each obviously have different valuations of Winker. I wouldn't trade Winker for Bundy, so that tells you how I value him. Context is key : Winker's skill set is perfect for Ottoneu
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 11:00 AM
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Like I said great deal for you, but awful trade and it made no sense not to go back to Durham and to me and say "ok forget the top 10 guys I told you were the min that wasn't true as it turns out"
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So why the frustration if it did in fact require Bundy? It's clear you didn't have another player(s) he wanted for that package. It's also clear you'd have Lee/Ortiz right now if you were willing to move Bundy
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:59 AM
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Yes, I'm sure Jesse Winkler will next in the long line of 21 year olds who jump from AA to the bigs and have an immediate impact.
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Again, to quote Jed: "this cannot without Bundy". 30+ players on my roster were made available.
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Keep in mind too that Winker is just $1. That factors also into his value. He will very likely impact next year.
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:56 AM
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You are correct though in that my (high) evaluation of Winker is the key point of my argument. I'm essentially saying Jed received an elite prospect in return - elite for this format. If you value Winker differently, you will see the trade differently
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:54 AM
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If you had offered Dahl he might of taken it. I have no idea. Did you offer Dahl?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:52 AM
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I think Winker is a big time hitter (in this format) that will be similar in value to top ranked hitters. I don't think Dahl is a similar hitter to Winker, is he? 25-30 HR power? High OBP?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:52 AM
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Sorry, vitriol was not the right word. "Object of some league owners' verbal affections." :-)
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So are you saying an owner can't ask initially for more than they hope to eventually receive in return? That's where the counter offer has value
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:49 AM
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No trey - you specifically are trying to support your trade by arguing that winkler is close to Sano or Taveras. Following your logic isn't it true to say that Dahl is closer to winkler than he is to Taveras or Sano?
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Remember when you said Brad Miller wasn't worth much because he was never ranked? Then you said never mind the rankings, he looks like a great (valuable) player? That's an example of non-ranked players having value in this format
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:48 AM
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Responding to MoPain -- don't see one bit of vitriol. And yes the return doesn't matter, except that it was wildly different and lower than what Durham and I were told
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My only point is that rankings aren't everything, especially after 1/3 of the season gives more info. Gallo was ranked 95 by BP to start the season. Things change quickly in prospect valuation, uses tons of resources
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:47 AM
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The gap between winkler and Taveras is assuredly smaller than the gap between winkler and David Dahl correct!
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Frankly, though, it doesn't matter what Trey thought. It matters that WAR believed him and made the deal, right?
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I think Winker is a top offensive prospect in the game. More importantly, I think he's a top Ottoneu-style prospect in the game. I used Oliver projections as one method to support that
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:44 AM
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I understand. I think the heartburn is that your assumption is that Winker is a less valuable prospect than guys like Sano, Bundy etc. I'm not sure the gap is as big as you think, and Jed agreed. He
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:43 AM
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This comes on the heels of being asked for Gomez and Sano for Kershaw,. He was traded for Shark and Hunter Harvey.
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If your argument is that hey, winkler as top 10 prospects are the same, then great prove it
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Hey guys, why the vitriol towards Trey? He proposed a deal. WAR accepted it...he had every right to call BS and decline, right? Kudos to Trey for making a deal in his favor (according to some owners).
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But all of this is getting away from the point that, like EP, I don't give a shit about the return. I'd just like to have a true picture of the ask and a chance to make an offer based on that information.
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What we were told the min price was, and what the price actually was to you. That's the issue here.
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I'm not saying you can only use ranking or only data. You have to use all resources, especially in context of this scoring format. There are tons of valuable Ottoneu players who never ranked on any list
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:40 AM
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Jesus I've never seen a more desperate series of move the goal post attempts Trey. I have respect for you and think you're a great owner but can you please just focus on the one and only point that Durham and I raised here-- namely the gap between
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Julio Urias was used as a key trade piece before the season started, before he had experience above A ball. That value was entirely dependent upon his Top 100 ranking. And he's a pitcher, more risk. Oliver projections at least use real time performance
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:38 AM
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As long as you place no value on the opinions of scouts, sure you could make that argument. I know you don't believe that since your first defense of the trade was to point to Sickels list and quote BA.
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I'm sure this will be covered by trade banter, but this was a great article on WAR, VMart, and Speedy Billy: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/6/23/5831986/billy-hamilton-victor-martinez-WAR-sabermetrics-mlb
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Can't you use that same argument for putting value on an arbitrary top 100 ranking for a player in the low minors?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:35 AM
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An Oliver projection for five seasons from now for a player with zero experience above A is not anything at all.
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As I said, Ortiz and Lee have been available for weeks
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:33 AM
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Yes, I could have acquired those players if I was either given their true price tag and/or given more than an hour and a half to make an offer after stating that Sano and Correa weren't being moved.
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An Oliver projection is just one measure of value when measuring the value of prospects. Is an arbitrary ranking of 95 any better at telling you value? I put more weight on performance over ranking; both are important.
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:32 AM
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The point is that you could have acquired those players. You had the pieces to do it. In that light I don't see it being unfair.
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:31 AM
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An Oliver projection for 2018 is a fact? That's hilarious.
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Did you make an offer?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:30 AM
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Great for the league. But good for you, great trade for you.
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Congrats, you got 3 players that might help for nothing. I don't think that the process here makes the league better. Two teams got asked for the moon, then the price dropped to the dump you offered and he took it. Nothing illegal. Just odd and IMHO not
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I used facts to show Winker is projected to be as good a hitter as Taveras. Pre-season rankings are just a small part of the valuation process in June.
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:28 AM
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Iisten I'm just stating facts you can go on all you want trying to make your crazy deal look fair.
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I thought you said it wasn't a question of the return he got?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:26 AM
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*return*
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I can't comment on your negotiation; don't know the details. Making guys available is different than making an offer. Did either of you make an offer to each other?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:25 AM
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Jed is free to make whatever deals he wants. What is confusing is why the ask would radically drop from what was asked of Durham and me without going back to those discussions before pulling a deal for this small a tetuen
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I made tons of guys available; was told that no combo was possible except one involving Bundy and another, so let's drop the "oh wait just make offers" line bc it is inapplicable to this discussion.
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The impression I got from talking with Jed is that several teams had better prospects he wanted, but they weren't willing to offer anything at all, even alternatives to the initial request. Ortiz and Lee were public ally available for a few weeks I think.
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:13 AM
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How often is it that any owner gets exactly the asking price they want up front? If you're concerned about process the question is why not counter down from the top 20 prospect request to see if you can find agreement suitable to both parties?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:10 AM
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You may not love a guy like Iwakuma but he's going to score more points for less than most of the top prospect pitchers currently rostered.
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:09 AM
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If a top 100 list is your only measure of prospect value you're going to miss a lot of great players, especially in context of linear weights. But the bottom line is you didn't make an alternative offer, correct?
TTBNL on
June 23, 2014 10:07 AM
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