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Knights...what a trade, unbelievable.
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Make sure you like and subscribe.
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You posted that video less than 2 years ago, so you must still be pretty involved, Cruz. Oops, I mean *Darkest Nation Clan*. SPOOKY!!!
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I remember that he posted that like 2 years ago. Glad he saved it to remind me.
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Unfortunately yes. I have no shame. Very very drunk soul.
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OMG... I just about pissed my pants right at my desk, when I played the YouTube Link... is that honestly Cruz? That's the funniest fuckin thing I've ever seen in my life... I can barely breathe to type...
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LOL
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The early injuries definitely put a damper on my enthusiasm, but I'm pretty sure most of those concerns you have about those players are already reflected in the projections, and the ones that aren't just don't matter.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 12:11 PM
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How did your projections take into account... Jensen, Werth and McGee all opening on the DL... Sale with a broken foot already... Beltran, Ramos, McCarthy and Anderson to literally be the 4 most iunjury prone players in the league... and thats just the facts... not even speculating on Belt still dealing with concussion, Felix folding down the stretch, Panda reporting 100+# overweight... and Valbuean and Pearce being 31+ years old before finally having a "career" year and an everyday job?
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It's a good thing I never took you serious.
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337 pts behind me based on those projections, which are similar but not the same as the ones I actually use. Yes, the top 4 lineups by projected points are reasonably close, and yes my numbers show my team with the best lineup. I project myself in 1st place by a wide margin due to my pitching, which projects to be substantially better than any other team. I am not guaranteeing victory, but the projections show I should be the favorite.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 11:28 AM
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OK... 337pts behind you... 3.5% on 8100PA... and thats 4th supposedly... so there are at least 4 teams, within 3.5% hitting of each other... which is statistically a dead heat... yet, you are confident to project yourself as 1st place, by a substantial margin?
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I already said I don't think anyone maxes Games Played and reaches 7,300 AB. Your argument that I was inflating my points by 1,000 pts because of that is wrong however. I just updated the sheet to add in your hitters and they come to 9,867 Pts in 8,100 PA, 337 pts behind my team.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 11:09 AM
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record book has 7279AB by Grain in 2014 as the league record.... No one has ever had 7300AB, so I wouldn't count on it.
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If i take the 12 guys I have in my lineup today, and use your projections it gives me closer to 7000AB's, which is probably realistic... if I inflate it the 15%(appr) to get to 8100... I'm at 10,000... (-200)pt difference over the course of 8100AB's, is about a 2.5% deviation... which, from what I recall from stats class, which was about 20+ years ago... a deviation of 2.5% on that kind of number is within the mean, or essentially flat.
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My 8,100 PA comes out to about 7,300 AB using a quick back of the envelope calculation, which is higher than the 7,200 you mention, but not and 1,100 point difference.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 10:52 AM
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It is 8,100 PA, not AB. And yes I agree that it is unlikely I or anyone else will max Games Played, but like you said I applied that assumption to every team so I think any bias is reduced.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 10:49 AM
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First issue I see with projecting the total points... tho, maybe apples-apples when comparing teams...you are assuming you max out your 8100 AB... which wont happen... the league record for AB is closer to 7200... So, 900 AB @ 1.25pts P/AB on average... is 1125... so right off the bat, in "reality" need to take about 1100pts off your total, which would explain why you were 1000-1300pts higher then last year champion, etc...
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Pretty sure everyone is familiar with ZiPS and Steamer.
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Dizzy Deans's trade block has been updated!
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 10:24 AM
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Bravo.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 8:58 AM
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I got a steamer for ya
USS Mariner on
March 5, 2015 8:56 AM
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Before everyone has a shit fit, I am not suggesting that those projections are definitely what WILL happen. But Steamer and ZiPS are the gold standard when it comes to projection systems, and I would argue that if you are going to project players you have to start with those systems.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 8:54 AM
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This link shows the Fangraphs Consensus Projection sheet I shared with the slack community, and combines the Steamer, ZiPS, and Fan projections into one average projection. I have separated out the players on my team, and applied enough PA (assuming 675 PA is 162 games) and IP to reach the caps. And it adds up to over 19K in points, which is even higher than the projections I actually use. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v8vWg4NBGsezdFCA-w3Wt3-8RJZ4D-S94T2ygoe5HGs/edit?usp=sharing
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 8:51 AM
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You said it, pal.
USS Mariner on
March 5, 2015 8:15 AM
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You guys are right, I am definitely screwed. I can't argue with your logic.
Orange Crush on
March 5, 2015 8:14 AM
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Well that escalated quickly. I would like to see these point totals though.
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again... you don't even have to tell us "how" you got the numbers...but at least post the numbers... post your team and how you arrived at 18700... lets see it... lets see how your 40 guys you have today, combined to score you 18700pts... you have it... can't be hard... lets see it...
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I'm just glad I still have my other draft later this month... so I can target all the same hitters as you have, and it will be a slam dunk... getting about 1500pts from Neil Walker at 2B in the 15th round will be huge... its only twice his career output... I think its reasonable... he's my guy... why not?
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And this is your roster, as it is today, correct? Not including any trades where you trade your 45% pitching budget to acquire hitters... you are just going with what we see right now?
Seriously... you don't have to post how you are arrived at your numbers, if its a proprietary projection system.... but at least post your team, specifically the hitters, and post what you are projecting as their 2015 points total... I'd love to see what you expect from guys like Bats, Walker, Belt, Castro...
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Not only beat the second place team by 1300pts... and last years winner by over 1000... but you project yourself to have the #1 scoring team in the 4 year history of the league... Laser had the record in 2013 with about 18500... and you are calling for yourself to finish with about 18700... got it.
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1st Place- @NotoriousGman.... 1,000,000,000 points
2nd Place Laser 67pts
3rd Place Grain 19pts
4th Place Dissy 9pts
Sorry... according to my sysyem, no other teams scored any points at all... so I won't bother with posting, just know you're not good enough
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Hold up... I'm about a post my projection system... give me a minute...
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Good grief... I am just now looking at the link... you posted a worddoc that just says you were #1 and your projection? No data to back it up? LMAO... I assumed you posted a link to the sheets file for your system... you created a word doc that says your #1, and thats your system? Not only are you #1... but 1000 more points then last years winner, and 1300 more points then the 2nd place team... this is hilarious...
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I think we only fucked up by calling it to your attention, so now you can try and do somnething about it... should have just let you go on thinking it... then the competing teams could have traded for what they needed in July when you were "rebuilding"....
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You may make all the right moves, and make trades... and at the end it balances out that way... and if you did that, I'll give you credit... but there is no way you are starting with a 20% disadvantage, in an established leaue, with mature keepers... and projecting that you assembled a betting hitting lineup then the other 11 team, without an inherent biased built into the system... period. Its absurd...
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That said... if you "created" your own little projection system... in December, and had no players on your roster already, and were going into a draft having no cliue who youd come away with... and when the draft was complete, you entered your roster into the system and it projected you as #1... then you may have something... obviously, that isnt the case here... ylou would literally have to be a league with children to use 20% less budget on hitting, and still end up with the #1 team, pre-seaso
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yuo already have a believe in those guys, and expect a great season from them... so its built into your projection system... I do it all the time myself... I have done the same thing over the years... post draft, or analyzing a set of keepers in a league prior to the rosters being filled out... you project, based on your beliefs which had you keep those guys... which is biased... but it makes you feel good
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Thats the pitching... as for the hitting... the only way its possible...is if you are projecting insane growth across the board, career years from Joey, Abreu, Castro, Walker... anticipate no regression at all, and at the same time, arent using the same aggressive projection tools on other lineups... its an inherent flaw with any projection system when you arlready know what you are working with... you develop bias within the system to over state what you already have... becasue naturally
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You have also spent 45%+ of your budget on pitching... pretty sure if you read any of the Ottoneu "experts" stuff, they will recommend closer to 30%... if you blow half your budget on pitching, and the rest of the league is 25-35%... then Yes, I would hope and expect it to be better... I have $51 invested in 12SP... you have that much in Felix... we'll see who is right, but in 3 years of finishing top 3, last year when I traded for Felix in August, was the only time I have ever had a SP over $17
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Well in 2010 I had the AL MVP, CY and ROY winner and in the NL the MVP and ROY as well as Cliff Lee who looked like Koufax during the first half. And the 2011 season was one of my worst seasons. Just felt like sharing.
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but but but...last years team....
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but but but...last years team....
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What you did last year does not make Justin Turner, Steve Pearce, Lonnie Chisenhal, Luis Valbuena, Wilson Ramos and Brandon Belt part of the best hitting lineup in any league, anywhere.
USS Mariner on
March 4, 2015 6:29 PM
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Yes? Considering one of my teams last year had the best offense across all Fangraphs Points leagues, I think I know what I'm doing. Not that this team will be as good on offense as that one, but it doesn't have to be with the pitching I have.
Orange Crush on
March 4, 2015 6:22 PM
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Can't wait. You don't honestly believe you have the #1 hitting lineup do you?
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This should be an interesting season...
Orange Crush on
March 4, 2015 6:15 PM
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If Dizzys lineup, as it is today would finish this season as the #1 hitting lineup...after I eat my shoes, I'll retire from fantasy baseball for the rest of my life. That's ridiculous
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I said that when I posted the pre-auction rankings, where it wasn't just a ranking of who had the best players kept, but rather who had the best players + the most $ to buy more players.
Orange Crush on
March 4, 2015 2:30 PM
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And Dizzy you were the one who said you take "value" into account in the projection and ranking.
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