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Jeez.. wtf has gone on today???
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I certainly meant no offense, Coastal. It's a perfectly valid tool, and I use it myself. That I don't consider it authoritative is just my opinion, and certainly isn't intended as a slight in any way.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 7:54 PM
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You really need to stop talking shit about the surplus calculator.
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I generally think the surplus calculator is overrated as well, but I think it's a good guide as to where everyone is at and to catch someone you may not realize isn't worth their value.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 7:47 PM
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And as for Papa-he has built his team through surplus value, which gives him a great head start. Frankly, as much as I like his team and Thunder as well, I think the surplus calculator is overrated; it does, i my view, consider sufficiently position scarcity, plus I am not a fan of Steamer (I prefer ZiPS and PECOTA) . But that's why we play the games. 😁
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 7:45 PM
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Shit-you're not gonna bless us with your insight anymore? How will I ever compete without your authoritative voice guiding my decisions?
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I don't think anyone wants you to keep your opinions to yourself, Schrodinger. I think the issue people have is when you express your opinions as though they are fact. Everyone has an opinion, and is entitled to it. Believe me, I know-I am a trial lawyer. But there is no joy in debating baseball if you are being told by the other person you are simply wrong.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 7:42 PM
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Good luck gentlemen. It seems y'all prefer if I keep my opinions to myself, so I will do that going forward.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 7:40 PM
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Well said Nippon. For the record, I agree Bird at $7 is defensible. If he got the playing time he could have absolutely earned that, but my strategy is to cut players like him and take my chance in the auction instead of risking money on players like him. I, too, look forward to trying to dethrone them. According to the surplus calculator, we're already $50+ value behind Papa.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 7:39 PM
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Perhaps we could describe it this way. I think the lesson in this was that Bird at $7 was a defensible position, and that we will never know who was right about it. I do think, though, that if I may give a bit of friendly advice to all concerned: certitude in this type of competition is rarely a winning strategy. As for Thunder and Papa... They were here first, and they built juggernauts. Someone will eventually dethrone them. I hope it is me. 😀
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 7:36 PM
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FYI, I had a $440 budget last year. Hardly an arms-race
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My goodness...it's another Nelson Cruz!!!
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 7:31 PM
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I'm not saying you're an asshole, I'm just saying it'd be tough to describe you as a non-asshole.
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The most sensitive fantasy baseball league ever.
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*turns off email notifications*
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Am I arrogant? Hell yes. Does that make me an asshole? No. Does it make me annoying? Yes. So does sending out a thousand trade offers a day like half this league does.
And to your point about my finish, I inherited a rundown team that finished 10th in 2014 and turned it into a third place team. You and Thunder (Thunder especially) created an arms race going way, way over budget. Which is perfectly legal and fine, so of course you guys finished way out in front.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 7:23 PM
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My apologies for coming off as an ass. My intent wasn't to use his injury as a "look I was right." Someone else started the conversation about his value and I chimed in. I'm not right because he's injured. I never once said that. You guys continue to make false assumptions about my argument. I continued to explain why even if he wasn't injured I don't think he's worth $7. I even explained why Pujols might even be in a better position because of the injury.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 7:21 PM
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And btw, since you're obviously a mathematician/ fantasy baseball guru, I'd like to point out that you finished closer to 7th place than 2nd place last year. Maybe you should consider that before forcibly jamming your shitty opinions down people's throats or commenting on how shitty other teams will be (which you have inboxed me about out of the blue)
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I wouldn't call "piling on an injured player as a means to prove you were right" as a pointed argument about a player's value. It was a clear "look at me move" and transparent at that. I know that you're opinion is far superior to the rest of the leagues (even though several owners and projection systems disagreed with you on this). The self-righteous way that you carry yourself seems completely unfounded. It's certainly irritating
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I have remorse giving bird up, your lucky to have him Pujols!
Slow Worm on
February 1, 2016 7:02 PM
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I know you're not talking about Bird. Your "being intensely dislikeable is forever" was obviously calling me intensely dislikeable. I'm not the one who turned a discussion about a player's value into personal attacks in a freaking fantasy baseball league.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 7:01 PM
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It's cute-he still thinks we're talking about Bird.
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That wasn't an attempt to be a douche. Fangraphs had something last year or the year before about how shoulder injuries are a bitch to come back from. This is like the only league I've ever been in that goes nuts over pointed player discussions.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 6:26 PM
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Jesus Christ Schrodinger. You're only reinforcing the stigma that you're the biggest douche in the league with comments like this
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Didn't fangraphs have an article a while ago about how shoulder injuries are the toughest injuries for hitters to return from?
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 6:13 PM
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Pedro Alvarez is probably checking his phone every few seconds right now.
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My one consolation-shoulder injuries heal, being intensely dislikeable is forever.
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And look how often Tex played with Jones on the team - A LOT. I bet they get pushed now, to their detriment.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 5:32 PM
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He didn't exactly have a plausible backup last year until Bird was called up. Garrett Jones was awful.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 5:27 PM
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Eh, not necessarily. Without a plausible backup I bet Girardi pushes Tex and ARod much harder than he would have otherwise. I bet they play hurt now, and their production suffers.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 5:24 PM
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I guess we'll see at the end of the year how many ABs Bird would have roughly received.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 5:23 PM
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500 is plausible, but unlikely. With 1350 PAs between the two positions, 1350 - 477 - 527 is only 346. That's also assuming he gets all 346 because A-Rod and Teixeira are hypothetically both injured at different times. For him to get to 500, they have to miss 100+ games combined and at different times. Even for their past records, that's not that likely.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 5:21 PM
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And ZiPS gave Birdie a 122 OPS+ in 518 PA. Where did it get the PAs from? ARod and Tex. I like Zips more than Steamer myself, and if that projection would have been remotely close, Bird is blowing wayyyyy past $7.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 5:20 PM
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With all of the Greg Bird love that seems to be present in this league, you'll probably end up getting that entire $7 back if you cut him.
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The problem, Schrodinger, is that we don't know he would have only had 200 ABs. Steamer projects Teix for 477 PAs and ARod for 527. That's more than 250 PA's right there, just based on Steamer projections. And if you think that one or both gets hurt (ARod is past 40 with two bad hips), a path to playing time is pretty easy to see.
Carlos Beltran was worth $7 this past season in 133 games and 533 PA. Bird beat his rate stats last year. You don't think 500 PA is a plausible scenario?
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 5:17 PM
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I apologize for sounding arrogant. I just like heated offseason debates. It's no fun if you don't get everyone riled up over an insignificant $7 player.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 5:16 PM
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Thanks for clearing that up. I'm sorry I called you douchbag. I should've just said 'arrogant' but I'd hate to interrupt while you bask in the splendor of your own knowledge and glory.
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Nowhere did I say this proves me right. My point is I think he's better off losing Bird for the season than having to play him $7 and play him for 200 ABs at most in the most likely scenario. Even if A-Rod and Teixeira missed a month each during the season, that's 200 ABs with maybe 100-150 more sprinkled in through the year. That's $7 to earn maybe 50-75 points over a replacement level player.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 5:02 PM
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Saying that because Bird got hurt keeping him was the wrong decision is the classic post hoc fallacy. The only scenario which would have proved you right was Bird either staying in the minors all year or sucking when given regular at bats. This is not a victory lap scenario.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 5:01 PM
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You know what Schrodinger? That's your opinion, not a fact. That Bird had a flukey, unforeseen surgery doesn't prove you right. In fact, there are far more scenarios where Tex and/or Arod get hurt leading to a full season from Bird than Bird getting hurt himself. In case you didn't notice, Bird had comparable per-PA value to Eric Hosmer last year. That's worth a $7 gamble.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 4:59 PM
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Frankly, Bird's injury helps you. I think you're better off after you've cut him and spent that $3 you get back elsewhere. I'm not sure Bird would have even been worth $3 playing behind Teixeira and A-Rod.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 4:58 PM
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I'm unapologetic. You lost a $7 player you shouldn't have kept in the first place.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 4:56 PM
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You're a douchbag.
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I will trade AP's Butthole my most valuable player if Greg Bird earns his $7 this year.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 4:48 PM
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You may be wrong yet, Schrodinger. Watch him rehab in two weeks, swing a bat in four, then hit 45 homers down the stretch after being called up at the all-star break because Teixeira broke his ankle drinking kale juice.
Earl's Pearls on
February 1, 2016 4:45 PM
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I'm sad I won't get to see Greg Bird prove me wrong as a terrible $7 investment.
⚾️Otto Five⚾️ on
February 1, 2016 4:44 PM
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This isn't just a $7 depth piece/prospect. This is Greg Fucking Bird.
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Yeah, big difference between a $7 depth piece/prospect and a front line starter
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Besides, this happened to me last year, but it was a $42 tommy johned Darvish that got trapped on my roster right before the draft
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Damn. I'm glad I didn't push to trade back for him, because I've been considering for a few weeks
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